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Apr 06

Use Poisson distribution for betting

One of the most common betting problems with regards to the use of statistical models to help soccer betting is how to calculate the odds depending on the statistics we have collected. If, for example, we have calculated that the hosts in the match would most probably score 2.12 goals while the away team would score 0.89 goals, we face the problem that this doesn’t mean that the match will end 2-1. Based on this information we have to create a statistical model for the most correct betting probabilities from which to calculate our odds which to compare to those proposed by the bookmakers such as bet365, William Hill and bet-at-home.

Here is how to do it for the betting markets on Under / Over 2.5 total scored goals by both teams.

One of the most popular betting methods is the use of the so called Poisson distribution. With it you can calculate the probability based on a statistical model. The good news is that the Poisson distribution is calculated very easily with Excel.

You can use the function =POISSON(0;2.12;FALSE)*100 and =POISSON(0;0.89;FALSE)*100 which will give you the individual probabilities for both teams not to score in the match.

Poisson distribution is an essential betting tool, which is used by many players around the world.

Now, here’s the answer how to use it to calculate the exact odds of betting on under or over 2.5 total scored goals in football matches. You need to check the chances of each team not to score in the match (you can do it with the formulas above), so you would get the probabilities for 0-0. You need to repeat the same exercise for results like 1:0, 0:1 and 1:1. So, with all four probabilities you get the total percentage of the chances the match to end with less than 2.5 goals scored by both teams.

The remaining percentage up to 100% is the percentage probability for both teams to score more than 2.5 goals in the match, which ultimately gives you a complete picture of what you have as betting options for goal markets for this match.